Objectives To evaluate the effectiveness of the NHS breast screening programme (NHSBSP) on breast cancer mortality in England and Wales and to compare findings with a cohort analysis of the same underlying population. Methods A nested case-control study within a cohort of 959,738 women in England and Wales aged 49-64 who were eligible for routine NHSBSP screening during 1991-2005. Cases who died from breast cancer in 1991-2005 were matched to controls without breast cancer at the case diagnosis date and alive when the case died. Risk of breast cancer mortality associated with intention to screen (ITS) (7047 cases/28,188 controls) and screening attendance (4707 cases/9413 controls) was examined. Bias was minimised in accordance with currently advocated best practice. Odds ratios (ORs) were calculated using conditional logistic regression. Results were compared with findings from an incidence-based breast cancer mortality cohort analysis. Results ITS was associated with a 21% breast cancer mortality reduction (OR = 0.79, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.71-0.88, P < 0.001). Attendance ≤5 years before diagnosis was associated with a 47% reduction in breast cancer mortality after self-selection correction (OR = 0.53, 95% CI: 0.46-0.62, P < 0.001). Breast cancer mortality reduction associated with ITS was 21% in both the case-control and cohort analyses, but the impact of attendance was marginally greater in the case-control analysis (36% vs. 32%). Conclusions Case-control studies designed and analysed according to current best practice guidelines offer an effective means of evaluating population breast screening.
Keywords: Breast cancer; case-control; evaluation; mortality; screening.