Comparison of multifactor scoring systems and single serum markers for the early prediction of the severity of acute pancreatitis

Abstract

Background: The purpose of this study was to clarify whether the current scoring systems and single serum markers used in pancreatitis remain applicable for the early prediction of infected pancreatic necrosis (IPN) and the severity and mortality of acute pancreatitis (AP) in accordance with the revised Atlanta and determinant-based classifications.

Methods: Demographic, clinical, and laboratory data from 708 consecutive patients with AP were prospectively collected between January 2011 and December 2012. The severity was classified using the revised Atlanta and determinant-based classification systems. The predictive accuracies for moderately severe AP (MSAP), severe AP (SAP), critically severe AP (CAP), IPN, and mortality were measured using area under the receiver operating characteristic curves.

Results: The receiver operating characteristic analysis showed that the multifactor scoring systems and single serum markers had a low predictive accuracy regarding moderately severe AP. The Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation (APACHE) II score had the highest accuracy in predicting SAP with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.75 (95% CI = 0.71-0.79) and 0.77 (95% CI = 0.73-0.81) at 24 and 48 h after admission, respectively. Procalcitonin was the most accurate predictor for CAP and IPN, with respective AUCs of 0.86 (95% CI = 0.82-0.89) and 0.83 (95% CI = 0.78-0.87) at 48 h after admission. In predicting mortality, both the APACHE II score and blood urea nitrogen had the highest accuracy.

Conclusions: The APACHE II score had the highest predictive accuracy for SAP and mortality as defined by the revised Atlanta classification, whereas procalcitonin was the most accurate predictor for CAP and IPN.

Keywords: acute pancreatitis; mortality; predictors; severity.