Internal and External Validation of a multivariable Model to Define Hospital-Acquired Pneumonia After Esophagectomy

J Gastrointest Surg. 2016 Apr;20(4):680-7. doi: 10.1007/s11605-016-3083-5. Epub 2016 Feb 16.

Abstract

Background: Pneumonia is an important complication following esophagectomy; however, a wide range of pneumonia incidence is reported. The lack of one generally accepted definition prevents valid inter-study comparisons. We aimed to simplify and validate an existing scoring model to define pneumonia following esophagectomy.

Patients and methods: The Utrecht Pneumonia Score, comprising of pulmonary radiography findings, leucocyte count, and temperature, was simplified and internally validated using bootstrapping in the dataset (n = 185) in which it was developed. Subsequently, the intercept and (shrunk) coefficients of the developed multivariable logistic regression model were applied to an external dataset (n = 201) RESULTS: In the revised Uniform Pneumonia Score, points are assigned based on the temperature, the leucocyte, and the findings of pulmonary radiography. The model discrimination was excellent in the internal validation set and in the external validation set (C-statistics 0.93 and 0.91, respectively); furthermore, the model calibrated well in both cohorts.

Conclusion: The revised Uniform Pneumonia Score (rUPS) can serve as a means to define post-esophagectomy pneumonia. Utilization of a uniform definition for pneumonia will improve inter-study comparability and improve the evaluations of new therapeutic strategies to reduce the pneumonia incidence.

Keywords: Esophageal carcinoma; Esophagectomy; Pneumonia.

Publication types

  • Validation Study

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Body Temperature
  • Cross Infection / diagnostic imaging
  • Cross Infection / epidemiology*
  • Esophagectomy*
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Leukocyte Count
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Pneumonia / diagnostic imaging
  • Pneumonia / epidemiology*
  • Postoperative Complications / diagnostic imaging
  • Postoperative Complications / epidemiology*