Importance: The Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score is predictive of trauma outcomes.
Objective: To determine whether a decrease in MELD score is associated with improved mortality in critically ill trauma patients.
Design, setting, and participants: We performed a retrospective registry study of critically ill trauma patients 18 years or older with chronic liver disease treated between August 3, 1998, and January 5, 2012, at 2 level I trauma centers in Boston, Massachusetts. The consecutive sample included 525 patients (male, 373 [71.0%]; white, 399 [76.0%]; mean [SD] age, 55.0 [12.4] years).
Exposures: Change in MELD score from intensive care unit (ICU) admission to 48 to 72 hours later.
Main outcomes and measures: Thirty-day all-cause mortality.
Results: The mean (SD) MELD score at ICU admission was 19.3 (9.7). The 30-day mortality was 21.9%. The odds of 30-day mortality with a change in MELD score of less than -2, -2 to -1, +1 to +4, and greater than +4 were 0.23 (95% CI, 0.10-0.51), 0.30 (95% CI, 0.10-0.85), 0.57 (95% CI, 0.27-1.20), and 1.31 (95% CI, 0.58-2.96), respectively, relative to a change in MELD score of 0 and adjusted for age, sex, race, Charlson/Deyo Index, sepsis, number of acute organ failures, International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision-based injury severity score, and ICU admission MELD score.
Conclusions and relevance: A decrease in MELD score within 72 hours of ICU admission is associated with improved mortality.