Background: A 2010 New York law requires that patients aged 13-64 years be offered HIV testing in routine medical care settings. Past studies report the clinical outcomes, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact of expanded HIV testing nationally and within clinics but have not examined how state policies affect resource needs and epidemic outcomes.
Methods: A system dynamics model of HIV testing and care was developed, where disease progression and transmission differ by awareness of HIV status, engagement in care, and disease stage. Data sources include HIV surveillance, Medicaid claims, and literature. The model projected how alternate implementation scenarios would change new infections, diagnoses, linkage to care, and living HIV cases over 10 years.
Results: Without the law, the model projects declining new infections, newly diagnosed cases, individuals newly linked to care, and fraction of undiagnosed cases (reductions of 62.8%, 59.7%, 54.1%, and 57.8%) and a slight increase in living diagnosed cases and individuals in care (2.2% and 6.1%). The law will further reduce new infections, diagnosed AIDS cases, and the fraction undiagnosed and initially increase and then decrease newly diagnosed cases. Outcomes were consistent across scenarios with different testing offer frequencies and implementation times but differed according to the level of implementation.
Conclusions: A mandatory offer of HIV testing may increase diagnoses and avert infections but will not eliminate the epidemic. Despite declines in new infections, previously diagnosed cases will continue to need access to antiretroviral therapy, highlighting the importance of continued funding for HIV care.