Incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma after HBsAg seroclearance in chronic hepatitis B patients: a need for surveillance

J Hepatol. 2015 May;62(5):1092-9. doi: 10.1016/j.jhep.2014.11.031. Epub 2014 Nov 28.

Abstract

Background & aims: Little is known about whether surveillance for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is worthwhile in chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV)-infected patients who have achieved HBsAg seroclearance.

Methods: A retrospective analysis of 829 patients (mean age: 52.3 years; 575 males; 98 with cirrhosis) achieving HBsAg seroclearance was performed at a tertiary hospital in Korea between 1997 and 2012. We evaluated incidence rates of HCC, and validated CU-HCC score based on data at the time of HBsAg seroclearance.

Results: During a follow-up of 3464 patient-years, 19 patients developed HCC (annual rate: 0.55%). Liver cirrhosis (hazard ratio [HR]: 10.80; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.25-27.43), male gender (HR: 8.96; 95% CI: 1.17-68.80), and age ⩾50 years at the time of HBsAg seroclearance (HR: 12.14; 95% CI: 1.61-91.68) were independently associated with HCC. The estimated annual incidence of HCC was 2.85% and 0.29% in patients with and without cirrhosis, respectively. Among the non-cirrhotic patients, the annual rate of HCC was higher in the male patients than in the females (0.40% vs. 0%, respectively), and all the HCCs developed after age 50. The time-dependent area under the receiver operating characteristic curves for the CU-HCC score for 5 year and 10 year HCC prediction were 0.85 and 0.74, respectively.

Conclusions: HCC surveillance should be considered for cirrhotic patients and non-cirrhotic male patients over age 50, even after HBsAg seroclearance, especially those infected with HBV genotype C. HBsAg seroclearance at age ⩾50years was also an independent predictor for HCC.

Keywords: HBV; Liver cancer; Survival.

MeSH terms

  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular* / diagnosis
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular* / epidemiology
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular* / etiology
  • Carcinoma, Hepatocellular* / immunology
  • Female
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Hepatitis B Surface Antigens / blood*
  • Hepatitis B e Antigens / blood*
  • Hepatitis B virus
  • Hepatitis B, Chronic* / complications
  • Hepatitis B, Chronic* / immunology
  • Hepatitis B, Chronic* / virology
  • Humans
  • Incidence
  • Liver Cirrhosis* / diagnosis
  • Liver Cirrhosis* / epidemiology
  • Liver Cirrhosis* / etiology
  • Liver Cirrhosis* / immunology
  • Liver Neoplasms* / diagnosis
  • Liver Neoplasms* / epidemiology
  • Liver Neoplasms* / etiology
  • Liver Neoplasms* / immunology
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Republic of Korea / epidemiology
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Factors
  • Serologic Tests
  • Sex Factors

Substances

  • Hepatitis B Surface Antigens
  • Hepatitis B e Antigens