This study examined the association between postnatal depressive symptoms and a set of demographic and psychosocial factors among 604 women attending a public hospital for postnatal care in Mexico City. Specific profiles of women that would indicate an increased probability for developing postnatal depression (PND) based on discrete combinations of risk and protective factors were generated. In a logistic model, followed by the estimation of predicted probabilities, we examined the association between depressive symptomatology and psychosocial factors: low social support, unplanned pregnancies, history of depression, and exposure to moderate or severe intimate partner violence (IPV) during pregnancy. Postnatal depressive symptomatology was reported by 10.6 % of the women, as measured by scores at 12 or above on the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale. The cumulative probability of presenting PND in the simultaneous presence of the psychosocial factors was 67.0 %; however, this could be reduced to 5.5 % through preventive measures that work to eliminate low social support, unplanned pregnancy, and exposure to severe IPV during pregnancy. Early identification of psychosocial risk factors, specifically low social support, unplanned pregnancies, history of depression, and exposure to violence during pregnancy, is recommended.