Progression-free survival as primary endpoint in randomized clinical trials of targeted agents for advanced renal cell carcinoma. Correlation with overall survival, benchmarking and power analysis

Abstract

Purpose: A correlation, power and benchmarking analysis between progression-free and overall survival (PFS, OS) of randomized trials with targeted agents or immunotherapy for advanced renal cell carcinoma (RCC) was performed to provide a practical tool for clinical trial design.

Results: For 1st-line of treatment, a significant correlation was observed between 6-month PFS and 12-month OS, between 3-month PFS and 9-month OS and between the distributions of the cumulative PFS and OS estimates. According to the regression equation derived for 1st-line targeted agents, 7859, 2873, 712, and 190 patients would be required to determine a 3%, 5%, 10% and 20% PFS advantage at 6 months, corresponding to an absolute increase in 12-month OS rates of 2%, 3%, 6% and 11%, respectively.

Conclusions: These data support PFS as a reliable endpoint for advanced RCC receiving up-front therapies. Benchmarking and power analyses, on the basis of the updated survival expectations, may represent practical tools for future trial' design.

Keywords: Correlation; Overall survival; Progression-free survival; Renal cell carcinoma.