Predictive accuracy in the neuroprediction of rearrest

Soc Neurosci. 2014;9(4):332-6. doi: 10.1080/17470919.2014.907201. Epub 2014 Apr 10.

Abstract

A recently published study by the present authors reported evidence that functional changes in the anterior cingulate cortex within a sample of 96 criminal offenders who were engaged in a Go/No-Go impulse control task significantly predicted their rearrest following release from prison. In an extended analysis, we use discrimination and calibration techniques to test the accuracy of these predictions relative to more traditional models and their ability to generalize to new observations in both full and reduced models. Modest to strong discrimination and calibration accuracy were found, providing additional support for the utility of neurobiological measures in predicting rearrest.

Keywords: Anterior cingulate; Impulsivity; Prediction; Recidivism; fMRI.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adult
  • Area Under Curve
  • Brain / physiology*
  • Calibration
  • Crime
  • Criminals*
  • False Positive Reactions
  • Follow-Up Studies
  • Humans
  • Impulsive Behavior / physiology*
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Neurological*
  • Neuropsychological Tests*
  • Prognosis
  • ROC Curve
  • Sensitivity and Specificity
  • Young Adult