Objective: Patients with persistent or longstanding atrial fibrillation have modest success achieving sinus rhythm with catheter ablation or rhythm control medications. Their high risk of stroke, bleed, and heart failure leads to significant morbidity and health care costs. The convergent procedure has been shown to be successful in this population, with 80% of patients in sinus rhythm after 1 year. This study evaluated the cost-effectiveness of the convergent procedure, catheter ablation, and medical management for non-paroxysmal AF patients.
Methods: A Markov micro-simulation model was used to estimate costs and effectiveness from a payer perspective. Parameter estimates were from the literature. Three patient cohorts were simulated, representing lower, medium, and higher risks of stroke, bleed, heart failure, and hospitalization. Effects were estimated by quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Single-variable sensitivity analysis was performed.
Results: After 5 years, convergent procedure patients averaged 1.10 procedures, with 75% of survivors in sinus rhythm; catheter ablation patients had 1.65 procedures, with 49% in sinus rhythm. Compared to medical management, catheter ablation and the convergent procedure were cost-effective for the lower risk (ICER <$35,000) and medium risk (ICER <$15,000) cohorts. The procedures dominated medical management for the higher risk cohort (lower cost and higher QALYs). The convergent procedure dominated catheter ablation for all risk cohorts. RESULTS were subject to simplifying assumptions and limited by uncertain factors such as long-term maintenance of sinus rhythm after successful procedure and incremental AF-associated event rates for AF patients relative to patients in sinus rhythm. In the absence of clinical trial data, convergent procedure efficacy was estimated with observational evidence. Limitations were addressed with sensitivity analyses and a moderate 5 year time horizon.
Conclusion: The convergent procedure results in superior maintenance of post-ablation sinus rhythm with fewer repeat ablation procedures compared to catheter ablation, leading to lower cost and higher QALYs after 5 years.
Keywords: Atrial fibrillation; Catheter ablation; Convergent procedure; Cost-effectiveness; Non-paroxysmal.