Mortality and air pollution in London: a time series analysis

Am J Epidemiol. 1990 Jan;131(1):185-94. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.aje.a115473.

Abstract

The relation between air pollution and mortality in London was examined for the winters of 1958-1972. The data exhibited a high degree of autocorrelation, requiring analyses using autoregressive models. There was a highly significant relation between mortality and either particulate matter or sulfur dioxide (after controlling for temperature and humidity), both overall and in each individual year. Graphic analysis revealed a nonlinear relation with no threshold, and a steeper exposure-response curve at lower air pollution levels. In models with both pollutants, particulate matter remained a significant predictor with about a 10% reduction in its estimated coefficients, while sulfur dioxide was insignificant, with a large drop in its estimated coefficient. The authors conclude that particulates are strongly associated with mortality rates in London, and the relation is likely causal.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Air Pollution / analysis
  • Air Pollution / statistics & numerical data*
  • Humans
  • Humidity
  • London / epidemiology
  • Models, Statistical
  • Mortality*
  • Probability
  • Regression Analysis
  • Sensitivity and Specificity
  • Smoke / adverse effects
  • Smoke / analysis
  • Sulfur Dioxide / adverse effects
  • Sulfur Dioxide / analysis
  • Temperature

Substances

  • Smoke
  • Sulfur Dioxide