Time series analysis of personal exposure to ambient air pollution and mortality using an exposure simulator

J Expo Sci Environ Epidemiol. 2012 Sep;22(5):483-8. doi: 10.1038/jes.2012.53. Epub 2012 Jun 6.

Abstract

This paper describes a modeling framework for estimating the acute effects of personal exposure to ambient air pollution in a time series design. First, a spatial hierarchical model is used to relate Census tract-level daily ambient concentrations and simulated exposures for a subset of the study period. The complete exposure time series is then imputed for risk estimation. Modeling exposure via a statistical model reduces the computational burden associated with simulating personal exposures considerably. This allows us to consider personal exposures at a finer spatial resolution to improve exposure assessment and for a longer study period. The proposed approach is applied to an analysis of fine particulate matter of <2.5 μm in aerodynamic diameter (PM(2.5)) and daily mortality in the New York City metropolitan area during the period 2001-2005. Personal PM(2.5) exposures were simulated from the Stochastic Human Exposure and Dose Simulation. Accounting for exposure uncertainty, the authors estimated a 2.32% (95% posterior interval: 0.68, 3.94) increase in mortality per a 10 μg/m(3) increase in personal exposure to PM(2.5) from outdoor sources on the previous day. The corresponding estimates per a 10 μg/m(3) increase in PM(2.5) ambient concentration was 1.13% (95% confidence interval: 0.27, 2.00). The risks of mortality associated with PM(2.5) were also higher during the summer months.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Air Pollution / adverse effects*
  • Environmental Exposure / adverse effects*
  • Environmental Exposure / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Markov Chains
  • Models, Statistical
  • Mortality
  • New York City / epidemiology
  • Particulate Matter / adverse effects
  • Risk Assessment
  • Seasons
  • Stochastic Processes

Substances

  • Particulate Matter