Marginal structural models for case-cohort study designs to estimate the association of antiretroviral therapy initiation with incident AIDS or death

Am J Epidemiol. 2012 Mar 1;175(5):381-90. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwr346. Epub 2012 Feb 1.

Abstract

To estimate the association of antiretroviral therapy initiation with incident acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) or death while accounting for time-varying confounding in a cost-efficient manner, the authors combined a case-cohort study design with inverse probability-weighted estimation of a marginal structural Cox proportional hazards model. A total of 950 adults who were positive for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 were followed in 2 US cohort studies between 1995 and 2007. In the full cohort, 211 AIDS cases or deaths occurred during 4,456 person-years. In an illustrative 20% random subcohort of 190 participants, 41 AIDS cases or deaths occurred during 861 person-years. Accounting for measured confounders and determinants of dropout by inverse probability weighting, the full cohort hazard ratio was 0.41 (95% confidence interval: 0.26, 0.65) and the case-cohort hazard ratio was 0.47 (95% confidence interval: 0.26, 0.83). Standard multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios were closer to the null, regardless of study design. The precision lost with the case-cohort design was modest given the cost savings. Results from Monte Carlo simulations demonstrated that the proposed approach yields approximately unbiased estimates of the hazard ratio with appropriate confidence interval coverage. Marginal structural model analysis of case-cohort study designs provides a cost-efficient design coupled with an accurate analytic method for research settings in which there is time-varying confounding.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural

MeSH terms

  • Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / drug therapy*
  • Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / epidemiology
  • Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome / mortality
  • Adult
  • Anti-HIV Agents / therapeutic use*
  • Antiretroviral Therapy, Highly Active*
  • Cohort Studies*
  • Confounding Factors, Epidemiologic
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis
  • Data Interpretation, Statistical
  • Epidemiologic Research Design*
  • Female
  • HIV Infections / drug therapy
  • HIV Infections / mortality
  • HIV-1*
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Proportional Hazards Models*
  • Selection Bias
  • United States / epidemiology

Substances

  • Anti-HIV Agents

Grants and funding