Some consequences of demographic stochasticity in population genetics

Genetics. 2010 Aug;185(4):1345-54. doi: 10.1534/genetics.110.115030. Epub 2010 May 10.

Abstract

Much of population genetics is based on the diffusion limit of the Wright-Fisher model, which assumes a fixed population size. This assumption is violated in most natural populations, particularly for microbes. Here we study a more realistic model that decouples birth and death events and allows for a stochastically varying population size. Under this model, classical quantities such as the probability of and time before fixation of a mutant allele can differ dramatically from their Wright-Fisher expectations. Moreover, inferences about natural selection based on Wright-Fisher assumptions can yield erroneous and even contradictory conclusions: at small population densities one allele will appear superior, whereas at large densities the other allele will dominate. Consequently, competition assays in laboratory conditions may not reflect the outcome of long-term evolution in the field. These results highlight the importance of incorporating demographic stochasticity into basic models of population genetics.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Alleles
  • Animals
  • Gene Frequency
  • Genetics, Population / methods*
  • Genetics, Population / statistics & numerical data
  • Humans
  • Models, Genetic*
  • Monte Carlo Method
  • Mutation*
  • Population Density
  • Population Dynamics
  • Selection, Genetic
  • Stochastic Processes*