We identified clinical, demographic and psychological predictive factors that may contribute to the development of chronic headache associated with mild to moderate whiplash injury [Quebec Task Force (QTF) ≤ II] and determined the incidence of this chronic pain state. Patients were recruited prospectively from six participating accident and emergency departments. While 4.6% of patients developed chronic headache attributed to whiplash injury according to the International Classification of Headache Disorders, 2nd edn criteria, 15.2% of patients complained about headache lasting > 42 days (QTF criteria). Predictive factors were pre-existing facial pain [odds ratio (OR) 9.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.1, 10.4; P = 0.017], lack of confidence to recover completely (OR 5.5, 95% CI 2.0, 13.2; P = 0.005), sore throat (OR 5.0, 95% CI 1.5, 8.9; P = 0.013), medication overuse (OR 4.2, 95% CI 1.4, 12.3; P = 0.009), high Neck Disability Index (OR 4.0, 95% CI 1.3, 12.6; P = 0.019), hopelessness/anxiety (OR 3.8, 95% CI 1.3, 8.7; P = 0.024), and depression (OR 3.3, 95% CI 1.2, 9.4; P = 0.024). The lack of a control group limits the conclusions that can be drawn from this study. Identified predictors closely resemble those found in chronic primary headache disorders.