A multicenter, double-blinded validation study of methylation biomarkers for progression prediction in Barrett's esophagus

Cancer Res. 2009 May 15;69(10):4112-5. doi: 10.1158/0008-5472.CAN-09-0028. Epub 2009 May 12.

Abstract

Esophageal adenocarcinoma risk in Barrett's esophagus (BE) is increased 30- to 125-fold versus the general population. Among all BE patients, however, neoplastic progression occurs only once per 200 patient-years. Molecular biomarkers are therefore needed to risk-stratify patients for more efficient surveillance endoscopy and to improve the early detection of progression. We therefore performed a retrospective, multicenter, double-blinded validation study of eight BE progression prediction methylation biomarkers. Progression or nonprogression were determined at 2 years (tier 1) and 4 years (tier 2). Methylation was assayed in 145 nonprogressors and 50 progressors using real-time quantitative methylation-specific PCR. Progressors were significantly older than nonprogressors (70.6 versus 62.5 years; P < 0.001). We evaluated a linear combination of the eight markers, using coefficients from a multivariate logistic regression analysis. Areas under the ROC curve (AUC) were high in the 2-year, 4-year, and combined data models (0.843, 0.829, and 0.840; P < 0.001, <0.001, and <0.001, respectively). In addition, even after rigorous overfitting correction, the incremental AUCs contributed by panels based on the 8 markers plus age versus age alone were substantial (Delta-AUC = 0.152, 0.114, and 0.118, respectively) in all 3 models. A methylation biomarker-based panel to predict neoplastic progression in BE has potential clinical value in improving both the efficiency of surveillance endoscopy and the early detection of neoplasia.

Publication types

  • Multicenter Study
  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Age Factors
  • Barrett Esophagus / pathology*
  • Barrett Esophagus / physiopathology
  • Biomarkers / blood
  • Biomarkers / metabolism
  • Core Binding Factor Alpha 3 Subunit / genetics
  • Cyclin-Dependent Kinase Inhibitor p16
  • Disease Progression
  • Double-Blind Method
  • Endoscopy
  • Esophageal Neoplasms / epidemiology*
  • Esophageal Neoplasms / pathology
  • Gene Expression Regulation
  • Gene Expression Regulation, Neoplastic
  • Humans
  • Membrane Proteins / genetics
  • Neoplasm Proteins / genetics
  • Polymerase Chain Reaction
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Promoter Regions, Genetic
  • ROC Curve
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Risk Assessment

Substances

  • Biomarkers
  • CDKN2A protein, human
  • Core Binding Factor Alpha 3 Subunit
  • Cyclin-Dependent Kinase Inhibitor p16
  • Membrane Proteins
  • Neoplasm Proteins
  • Runx3 protein, human
  • TMEFF2 protein, human