A Monte Carlo model with site-specific input is used to predict depth-resolved fluorescence spectra from individual normal, inflammatory, and neoplastic oral sites. Our goal in developing this model is to provide a computational tool to study how the morphological characteristics of the tissue affect clinically measured spectra. Tissue samples from the measured sites are imaged using fluorescence confocal microscopy; autofluorescence patterns are measured as a function of depth and tissue sublayer for each individual site. These fluorescence distributions are used as input to the Monte Carlo model to generate predictions of fluorescence spectra, which are compared to clinically measured spectra on a site-by-site basis. A lower fluorescence intensity and longer peak emission wavelength observed in clinical spectra from dysplastic and cancerous sites are found to be associated with a decrease in measured fluorescence originating from the stroma or deeper fibrous regions, and an increase in the measured fraction of photons originating from the epithelium or superficial tissue layers. The simulation approach described here can be used to suggest an optical probe design that samples fluorescence at a depth that gives optimal separation in the spectral signal measured for benign, dysplastic, and cancerous oral mucosa.