Predictions of the epidemiologic impact of introducing a pre-erythrocytic vaccine into the expanded program on immunization in sub-Saharan Africa

Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2006 Aug;75(2 Suppl):111-8. doi: 10.4269/ajtmh.2006.75.111.

Abstract

We predict the effects of introduction of a pre-erythrocytic vaccine against Plasmodium falciparum into a malaria-endemic population in Africa. We use a stochastic simulation model that includes components of transmission, parasitology, and clinical epidemiology of malaria and was validated using the results of field trials of the RTS,S/AS02A vaccine. The results suggest that vaccines with efficacy similar to that of RTS,S/AS02A have a substantial impact on malaria morbidity and mortality during the first decade after their introduction, but have negligible effects on malaria transmission at levels of endemicity typical for sub-Saharan Africa. The main benefits result from prevention of morbidity and mortality in the first years of life. Vaccines with very short half-life or low efficacy may have little overall effect on incidence of severe malaria. A similar approach can be used to make predictions for other strategies for deployment of the vaccine and to other types of malaria vaccines and interventions.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Africa South of the Sahara / epidemiology
  • Child
  • Child, Preschool
  • Erythrocytes / parasitology
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Malaria Vaccines / administration & dosage*
  • Malaria Vaccines / immunology*
  • Malaria, Falciparum / epidemiology*
  • Malaria, Falciparum / prevention & control*
  • Malaria, Falciparum / transmission
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Biological*
  • Seasons
  • Time Factors
  • Vaccination

Substances

  • Malaria Vaccines