The thermodynamic exclusion of Na+ relative to K+ in potassium channels is examined by calculating the distribution of binding energies for Na+ and K+ in a model of the selectivity filter of the KcsA potassium channel. These distributions are observed to take a surprisingly simple form: Gaussian with a slight positive skewness that is insignificant in the present context. Complications that might be anticipated from these distributions are not problematic here. Na+ occupies the filter with a mean binding energy substantially lower than that of K+. The difference is comparable to the difference in hydration free energies of Na+ and K+ in bulk aqueous solution. Thus, the average energies of binding to the filter do not discriminate Na+ from K+ when measured from a baseline of the difference in bulk hydration free energies. The strong binding of Na+ constricts the filter, consistent with a negative partial molar volume of Na+ in water in contrast with a positive partial molar volume of K+ in water. Discrimination in favor of K+)can be attributed to the scarcity of favorable binding configurations for Na+ compared to K+. That relative scarcity is quantified as enhanced binding energy fluctuations, which reflects both the energetically stronger binding of Na+ and the constriction of the filter induced by Na+ binding.