Objective: Forty-year cardiovascular mortality and its association with entry risk factor levels are reported for men enrolled in the Italian Rural Areas of the Seven Countries Study of Cardiovascular Diseases.
Methods and results: Cardiovascular risk factors were measured in 1712 men aged 40-59 years at entry examination in 1960. Mortality data were collected during 40 years of follow-up. Overall death rate was 83.7%. The main causes of death were cardiovascular diseases, with a preponderance of those of atherosclerotic origin (CVDA, 33.7 % of all causes) including coronary heart disease, stroke and peripheral arterial diseases. Using 14 risk factors measured at baseline, multivariate analysis for CVDA showed that seven of them were strongly and significantly associated with events. The multivariate hazard ratio for 5 years of age was 1.59 (CI 1.43-1.77); for heavy job-related physical activity it was 0.96 (CI 0.79-1.18); for 10 cigarettes smoked per day 1.16 (CI 1.05-1.28); for 20 mm Hg of systolic blood pressure 1.38 (CI 1.25-1.52); for 1 mmol/l of serum cholesterol 1.19 (CI 1.09-1.30); for 0.25 l/m2 of height of vital capacity 0.87 (CI 0.78-0.97); for the presence of corneal arcus 1.36 (CI 1.03-1.79). Risk factors of which the coefficient did not reach statistical significance were family history for cardiovascular diseases, forced expiratory volume, heart rate, mid-arm circumference, subscapular skinfold, body mass index and diabetes. Similar findings were obtained for CHD and partially for stroke mortality.
Conclusions: During a 40-year period classical cardiovascular risk factors were still highly predictive of cardiovascular diseases of atherosclerotic origin in these Italian rural populations.