Lung cancer is the major cause of cancer mortality in Wisconsin, with an estimated 2,300 deaths in 1991. The low 5-year survival rate of about 10% in lung cancer is primarily attributed to advanced inoperable stage at diagnosis, limited response to therapy, and a high incidence of metastatic spread. Since smoking is the major etiologic factor associated with lung cancer, this is a largely preventable disease. Many current smokers may already have severe bronchopulmonary dysplasia or neoplastic changes that may manifest many years later. We report on a model developed to evaluate the effect of improved therapy for lung cancer patients in the next decade. Based on this model, Wisconsin's projected lung cancer mortality is estimated at 2,117 in the year 2001, without improved treatment, resulting in nearly 25,000 "years of potential life lost." According to this model, a 10% reduction in lung cancer mortality plus a 12-month increase in palliation in the year 2001 will "regain" more years of potential life lost than the current mortality for stomach, cervical, or uterine cancer. Thus, improved cure and palliation for lung cancer patients represents an important goal for Wisconsin's medical community.