Aim: We explored the value of variables relating to inflammation and nutrition as a prognostic factors for mortality in an elderly community-dwelling population.
Methods: We measured plasma levels of orosomucoid, C-reactive protein (CRP), albumin, and transthyretin, and the body mass index (BMI) of 245 subjects aged 65 to 95 living in the community (PAQUID study). The risk of death was analyzed two, four and six years after blood sampling by use of the Cox proportional hazards model with delayed entry. A survival curve was generated by the Kaplan-Meier method.
Results: Multivariate analysis--including sex, BMI, and plasma levels of albumin, transthyretin orosomucoid and CRP levels--showed that orosomucoid in the highest quartile (>0.88 g/L) was the strongest predictor of mortality two years after blood sampling [relative risk (RR)=7.4; 95% interval confidence (IC) 2.2-24.6; P<0.1]; the association remained significant four and six years after blood sampling [RR=2.5; 95%IC 1.2-5.2 and RR=1.9; 95%IC 1.0-3.4 respectively, P<0.05]. Orosomucoid levels above 1 g/L (the most accurate threshold for prediction of mortality) were associated with a strong increase in the risk of death two years [RR=12.3; 95%IC 4.3-35.0; P<0.001], four years [RR=6.9; 95%IC 3.3-14.7; P<0.001], and six years [RR=4.4; 95%IC 2.3-8.5; P<0.001) after blood sampling.
Conclusion: These results further underline the association between systemic inflammation and mortality. They may help us to identify of high-risk subpopulations of elderly subjects so we can employ prevention strategies.
Copyright 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.