Objective: To develop a model for estimating the services and human resources needed to care for people with severe psychiatric conditions in a hypothetical population of 100,000 people in South Africa.
Method: Annual mental health service needs were estimated in terms of numbers of daily patient visits (DPV) in ambulatory care, the number of beds required, and staffing. Developed within a spreadsheet format, the model allows for the adjustment of key service variables according to estimated or existing service data.
Results: At 100% coverage, 87 DPV, 28 acute beds, and 10 medium-long stay beds are necessary for a population of 100,000 people. This would require 35.2 full-time equivalent mental health staff: 21.3 for inpatient care, 12.0 for ambulatory care, and 1.9 for management.
Conclusion: Because the model can produce a range of service recommendations, the assumptions that inform it should be clearly stated and justified. This method makes the assumptions on which services are planned explicit and allows for a rational approach to decision making.