Objective: To evaluate whether degree of inflammatory activity in multiple sclerosis, expressed by frequency of gadolinium enhancement, has prognostic value for development of hypointense lesions on T1-weighted spin-echo magnetic resonance images, a putative marker of tissue destruction.
Design: Cohort design with long-term follow-up. Thirty-eight patients with multiple sclerosis who in the past had been monitored with monthly gadolinium-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging for a median period of 10 months (range, 6-12 months) were reexamined after a median period of 40.5 months (range, 33-80 months).
Setting: Magnetic Resonance Center for Multiple Sclerosis Research, Amsterdam, the Netherlands, referral center.
Main outcome measures: The new enhancing lesion rate (median number of gadolinium-enhancing lesions per monthly scan) during initial monthly follow-up; hypointense T1 and hyperintense T2 lesion load at first and last visit.
Results: The number of enhancing lesions on entry scan correlated with the new enhancing lesions rate (r = 0.64; P<.001, Spearman rank correlation coefficient). The new enhancing lesion rate correlated with yearly increase in T1 (r = 0.42; P<.01, Spearman rank correlation coefficient) and T2 (r = 0.47; P<.01, Spearman rank correlation coefficient) lesion load. Initial T1 lesion load correlated more strongly with yearly increase in T1 lesion load (r = 0.68; P<.01, Spearman rank correlation coefficient).
Conclusions: Degree of inflammatory activity only partially predicted increase in T1 (and T2) lesion load at long-term follow-up. Initial T1 lesion load strongly contributed to subsequent increase in hypointense T1 lesion load, suggesting that there is a subpopulation of patients with multiple sclerosis who are prone to develop destructive lesions.